Commercial Paper may be the next shoe to drop. Post 125
Mitch Goldstein | Coach Mitch | May 5th, 2009
Coach Mitch’s REFLECTIONS™
I will let this email speak for itself. I did not edit the email.
Commercial Paper time bomb
Subject: The One Trillion Commercial Real Estate Time Bomb
From: cfo-newsletter@emailblitz.com
Date: Mon, May 4, 2009 8:37 am
To:
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The One Trillion Commercial Real Estate Time Bomb
data provided by Deutsche Bank  By: Zero Hedge
The unprecedented economic deterioration resulting in a drop in commercial real estate values (the core of the problem is the decline in prices of the underlying properties, in many cases as much as 35-50%) could result in over $1 trillion in upcoming headaches for financial institutions, investors and the administration.
The CMBS (or securitized conduit financings) is at most 25% of the total commercial real estate market, with the bulk of exposure concentrated at banks (50%) and insurance companies’ (10%) balance sheets. But regardless what the source of the original credit exposure, whether securitized or whole loans. The refinancing problem is the altogether entire current shut down in debt capital markets for assets, which affects all refinancings equally (for the most immediate impact of this issue see General Growth Properties which was not able to obtain any refinancing on the bulk of its properties). The government is addressing this first theme through all the recently adopted programs that are meant to facilitate general credit flow. Note the skepticism that these are working in any fashion, especially with regards to lower quality assets. The second and the much more serious and less easily resolved issue of the negative equity deficiency on a per loan basis, which is not a systemic credit freeze problem, but an underwater investment problem.
The reason for this focus is that there seems to be a misunderstanding in the market that lenders will simply agree to roll the maturities on non-qualifying loans, and that the expected percentage of loans that need special lender treatment is low, roughly 5-10% of total loans. In reality the percentage of underwater loans at maturity is likely to be in the 60-70% range, meaning that refi extensions could not possibly occur without the incurrence of major losses for lenders. To demonstrate the seriousness of the problem it is important to first present the magnitude of the refinancing problem. There are approximately $685 billion of commercial mortgages in CMBS maturing between now and 2018, split between $640 billion in fixed-rate and $45 billion in floating rate. The biggest CMBS refi threat occurs in the 2010-2013 period when 2005-2007 loans mature. These loans, originated at the top of the market, which have experienced 40%-50% declines in underlying collateral values, and the majority will have material negative equity at maturity (if they don’t in fact default long before their scheduled maturity). Of these loans, only a small percentage will qualify for refinancing at maturity. Cynical readers may say: well even if all CMBS loans are unable to be rolled, it is at most $700 billion in incremental defaults. Is that a big deal. Well, the truth is that CMBS is only the proverbial tip of the $3.4 trillion CRE iceberg. To get a true sense for the problem’s magnitude one has to consider the banks and life insurance companies, which have approximately $1.7 trillion and roughly $300 billion in commercial loan exposure. Banks have $1.1 trillion in core commercial real estate loans on their books according to the FDIC, another $590 billion in construction loans, $205 billion in multifamily loans and $63 billion in farm loans.
The precise maturity schedule for these loans is not definitive, however bank loans tend to have short-term durations, and the assumption is that all will mature by 2013, exhibiting moderate increases in maturities due to activity pick up over the last 2-3 years. Adding the life insurance company estimate of $222 billion in direct loans maturing through 2018 per the Mortgage Bankers Association, increases annual maturities by another $15-25 billion. In summation, the total maturities by 2018 are just under $2 trillion, with $1.4 trillion maturing through 2013. And the bad news continues: there is a risk that commercial mortgages will under-perform CMBS loans, and delinquency rates for bank commercial mortgages will be magnitudes higher than those for comparable CMBS. Reflecting on this data should demonstrate why the administration is in such full-throttle mode to not only reincarnate credit markets at all costs (equity market aberrations be damned) but to boost credit to prior peak levels, explaining the facility in providing taxpayer leverage to private investors who would buy these loans ahead of, and at maturity.
Absent an onslaught of new capital, there is simply nowhere that new financing for commercial real estate would come from. An attempt to estimate the number of loans that would not conform for refinancing, based on two key criteria of cash flow and collateral presents the conclusion that roughly 68% of the loans maturing in 2009 and thereafter would not qualify. The amount of refinanceable loans is important because borrowers will either be unwilling or unable to put additional equity into these properties. For the purposes of the refi qualification analysis, the criteria that have to be met by an existing loan include a maximum LTV of 70 (higher than current maxima around 60-65), and a 1.3x Debt To Service Coverage Ratio (equivalent to a 10 year fixed rate loan with a 25 year amortization schedule and an 8% mortgage rate). The simple observation is that nearly 68% of loans in the next 4 years will not qualify for a refinancing at maturity putting the whole plan to merely delay the day of reckoning indefinitely at risk of massive failure. The underlying premise of maturity extension as a solution to a loan’s qualifying problem is that during the extension period the lender is either able to increase the amortization on the loan by some means (i.e. increasing the interest rate and using the extra cash flow to accelerate the loan’s pay down), or achieve value growth sufficient to allow the loan to qualify by the end of the extension period. As the equity deficiency for many loans is far too large to be tackled by accelerating the amortization over any period of time, and as for “value growth”, with hundreds of billions in distressed mortgage building up over time via these same extensions (even if successful), the likelihood of property price appreciation is laughable:
The flood of excess supply of distressed mortgage to hit the market is about to be unleashed. Then there is the logical aspect: maturity extensions merely delay the resolution and push the problem down the road.
And as for CMBS, the issue of (loan) extension may be dead on arrival – not only are CMBS special servicers limited to granting at most two to four year maturity extensions, but AAA investors are already mobilizing to stanch any more widespread extensions as a means of dealing with the refi problem. And, at last, there is the view that the refi- problem could fix itself, based on the argument that CRE cash flows are likely to rebound quickly as the economy begins to improve due to pent-up demand. This argument is nonsense: even if cash flows recover to their peak 2007 levels, values would still be down 30% as a result of the shift in financing terms. Ironically, it would require cash flows rebounding far beyond their peak levels to push values up sufficiently to overcome the steep declines. This is equivalent to predicting (as the administration is implicitly doing) that the market will be saved by the next rent and real estate bubble, which the U.S. government is currently attempting to generate.
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10 Ways Coach Mitch's "Ridiculously Simple System..." Is An Extraordinarily Profitable Way To Invest
Ellis, you are Exciting Dear Coach Mitch,
I got the list of tax delinquent properties exactly how he explained to get it, and found the ones that didn't have any mortgages and not many liens.
I found one property I really wanted to pursue, so I drove by the house and saw it was vacant and talked to a neighbor sitting outside who had the owner’s number. I called the owner that night and asked what was her plan with the property. She signed the deed over to me for just a one dollar.
I started marketing the house that day and it was sold after two days on the market for $12,000 with me only investing one dollar.
The following week I found another property on the list of tax delinquent property that was vacant, up for auction and also free and clear of any mortgages with just a $600 lien on the property. I called the owner and asked what was her plans for the property. She stated she didn't want the property. I told the owner I would take full responsibility for the property. She asked what was in it for her? I said one hundred dollars and she agreed; I will be closing next week.
Coach Mitch’s program really works.
Ellis Davis St. Louis, Missouri
Ken – make it happen!
Hi Coach Mitch,
Thanks, that postcard template is a brilliant idea. The new strategy really puts us ahead of the curve. I can picture the seller thinking a developer has money and is willing to pay top dollar without any extensive haggle.
Yet, they most likely will still be willing to negotiate if need be. I really like your series of strategies to get the seller to lower the price if they get obstinate.
The new post card format and verbiage seems great. The sales message is very powerful.
That’s awesome work Coach Mitch!!!!
Best,
-Ken Barns, Oxnard, CA
TY Adam Coach Mitch,
This message is to say THANK YOU! Sincerely, I'm amazed by you. The time and energy you have invested in my personal growth goes far beyond anything I ever expected.
I've been wholesaling for nearly two years now and bought into so many programs by this point I couldn't even count them all. Coach, I love calling you Coach because that's what you truly are for me. I don't know if you realize this, but you just took a couple hours to role play with me and help me feel confident when talking with sellers!?!
Thank you for your commitment to my excellence in this business and as a person. It shines through in all that you do and all that you stand for. You're patient guidance through all this is changing my life, my family's life, and my new client's lives. I got into this business to do good and really make a difference for people. You are helping with an arsenal of tools for me to carry this forward. I briefly mention to other wholesaler friends what I'm doing, and no one has a clue and these are some big time guys.
What you're teaching me is a goldmine!!! Coach, thank you for guiding me through making my dreams a reality. I am a better person because I know you. You are a part of the solution. I am grateful.
ALL THE BEST!
Adam C. Stoker St. Louis MO
Delighted by Lynn
Working with and getting mentored by Coach Mitch has been a wonderful experience. I have learned so much about real estate from him, as he has such a wealth of knowledge.
He is always accessible whenever I have a question or need clarification of any sort. He is actually one of the most accessible coaches I've ever worked with. In addition, he is willing to work through various scenarios with you. I have to say some of the ideas he comes up with in our brainstorming sessions are the best!
I have become more confident in real estate and I know I have a business partner in Coach Mitch.
Lynn Lawson
Atlanta, Georgia
Juan, you’re great! I bought Mitch Goldstein 's Tax Lien Course two months ago and found his material very complete and very detail oriented.
His support was amazing. Any questions that I have, I just call him and got his response immediately. I have worked with several Real Estate Professional Coaches before and in addition to their high cost of the material they never have the time to support you.
Mitch has a well-deserved reputation for expertise, support, and professionalism in all stages of the Tax Lien/Tax Deed process.
Just to mention my last experience with him, he just spent 1 hour and a half explaining how to use my computer in a step by step process on how to find and analyze the information from the Hillsborough Court Clerk at Tampa Florida.
I would be very happy to recommend him to anyone interested in the Tax Liens and Tax Deed Investments. His in depth KNOW HOW and support, place him in an enviable position as a Real Estate Coach.
Juan Moises Mejia
Tampa, FL
WoW! Thanks a lot Jim Coach Mitch,
I like your style. Out of all the people I've listened to talk and all the people I've thought that were going to help me, you're the one. I just love your style. I loved your answers. The other night was the first time I ever heard you and I can't say it more. I was impressed with you. You had the answers.
I was nervous because I don't want to mess up the first call. But you said, "If you mess up the first one, don't worry about it, there are plenty more leads. If you mess up the first ten, don't worry about it, there are plenty more leads, thousands more." That's when I felt more relaxed.
I'm just so excited now. With everything I've been through, I feel I can make a turnaround with my life. I'm looking forward down the road and I just wanted to say - thank you.
Jim Misiora - Taylor, Michigan
Thank You Carl, see you at the top. Hello Coach,
Just wanted to thank you for being a responsible and stand-up guy. Since I first purchased your $1 option program, you have made yourself available to answer all my questions and concerns. You have gone over and above, in my opinion, to make sure that I stayed on point to accomplish my goals.
I will not hesitate to recommend you to anyone, at any time.
Thank you for the information you sent last night.
God Bless,
Carl Smith, Maryland
TY Jim – You’re great!. OK. I've been dealing with gurus and using their techniques. This is the first one that I am so excited about...especially the $1 Option.
If I may say so, I've never seen options explained like that. A $1 Option seems a little far fetched, but when I read this thing, I realize that it is as real as the telephone I have in my hand right now. This is a very good manual. This is a fantastic manual. It is powerful, very, very powerful.
James Harrison. - Phoenix, Arizona
excerpted from Post #3
Thanks James, you’re easy to work with. Dear Coach Mitch,
When I first heard you outline your “RIDICULOUSLY SIMPLE SYSTEM”, I was literally pacing my living room in excitement!
For years I have gone to several other seminars, bought all the tapes and even done boot camps only to have limited or no success. It seems like I was always missing something?
Well, this is exactly what I have been looking for. You are available to me one on one and your teaching style is engaging and informative. This education is worth every penny. I feel like all my past efforts were leading me to this point and I am confident that having my own personal coach will prove to be the best investment I could make!
Thanks for everything!
J. S Cocoa, FL.
Gloria, I’m glad you’re glad!
Hi Coach Mitch,
Thanks for the help I have received thus so far. I'm having a life-changing, God blessed experience since receiving your material on 10/24/13.
I didn't think I could comprehend the material because I truly know nothing about REI but, you explained the material in a plain and simple manner, like teaching A,B,C.........Z in a superb manner!
Thanks for sharing this whole new world with me. I am confident that it will have a dramatic affect in my life and the lifestyle and future of my family.
Thank - you Coach Mitch,
Gloria Karungi Detroit, MI
Right On Rick! Coach Mitch,
Just a quick note. Last night I came across some of your old newsletters. You are Really "On Top" Of Your Game...especially the one from October 14, 2008. What you were saying then...is today's news Now! You might enjoy going back and looking over it again yourself.
Your friend
Rick Ward in Lubbock Texas
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